daily reflections: thinking better not longer

The recent launch of ChatGPT o1 got me thinking about how we actually make decisions.

According to Daniel Kahneman in Thinking Fast and Slow, there are two ways in which our brain makes decisions.

Today’s focus is on how to make better slow decisions. Why? Because on hindsight, I realised I made a few terrible decisions in my life that had a significant impact on me — and that could have been avoided had I thought better.

Few people have an intentional process for making decisions, other than the typical pros and cons comparison. And most of the time, we are influenced by various psychological biases that leads to worse decisions.

So here’s what I came up with:

1 Understand the problem / situation using 5W1H to get context

Before making any decision or solving any problem, make sure to fully understand the context and nuances of the issue.

Oftentimes, the 4W1H questions do the job pretty well

• Who are the people involved?

• What is the objective? What has been done?

• Why is this problem or issue important? Why did this become a problem?

• Where is the issue of concern? Will culture, geography or relationships affect?

• How did the problem arise?

2 Break down the problem using first principles

Identify the factors that influence the outcome that you want.

In weight loss, they could be diet and exercise.

In content creation, they could be educational value or entertainment value.

Some factors are not always easy to identify so be as creative as possible when figuring this out whether through further research or asking experts in the field.

Either way, you want to identify the 2-3 parts that has the greatest influence on the result so you can focus on them.

3 Identify the nature of the question and 2-3 mental models

Suppose your question is how to grow an audience on YouTube.

The goal is therefore growth - and the most relevant mental models are compounding and catalyst.

Compounding because building an audience requires consistency over time. By regularly creating content that relates to your audience, your growth will be exponential - slow at first, but fast once you past the tipping point.

Catalyst if you want to quickly get your content in front of as many people as possible.

For example, if you think your content is great but the algorithm is not pushing you - a catalyst would be helpful such as relating to something trending right now or targeting new or casual audiences.

4 Acknowledge the risks and uncertainty involved

In every situation there are usually risks and uncertainty in the outcome, whether hidden or not.

Even something as simple as going to the toilet has a risk of slipping, albeit a mild one.

The important thing here is to identify the risks and uncertainty that prevents you from achieving your goal.

Or as Warren Buffett often recommends - think in terms of probability.

What is the probability of a creator becoming full-time? What is the probability of being in an accident?

Nothing is certain.

Failing to acknowledge this often leads to overthinking - where you constantly worry about the outcome. Honestly, this has been the biggest blocker of launching anything.

Accept that people are going to judge you or that your content may do poorly - if you want to create content on social media. And even if it’s the case, take it as feedback to do better the next time.

Execution

Everything above is only a plan. And some of you might have heard that planning is only 10% of the work — 90% belongs to execution.

Are you actually able to be consistent? Can you package your content in a way that really delivers value?

But that’s a reflection for another day. It’s something I do poorly on as well.

Think better not longer,
Joesurf